国泰君安第二季度宏观策略发布会
    国泰君安第二季度宏观策略发布会13日举办，新浪财经独家网络直播此次发布会。表示，对A股上半年的目标是2500点，下半年有望上探到2800点-3000点。
　　本周一大盘站上2500点，因此按照翟鹏的估算，上半年A股已经到顶。他指出，从估值水平来看，目前整个A股动态市盈率不是非常高，比历史平均30倍还是偏低。但是扣除掉金融股的话，已经接近历史平均水平。
　　他认为经济向好的情况下，下半年可能有望上探2800—3000点。不过他补充说，这需要企业的业绩能够跟上来，而目前市场预期可能对于未来宏观经济和企业盈利增长有过于乐观的预期，对于股市未来增长有一定的透支。所以他对于整个上半年的合理估值目标量相对谨慎。
　　主题投资方面，翟鹏建议五大组合，即4大主题组合和稳健组合。
　　四大主题组合包括，1季报可能超预期的组合，包括有色(铜陵有色</SPAN>(16.15,0.09,0.56%)</SPAN>、神火股份</SPAN>(30.87,1.75,6.01%)</SPAN>)、石油化工(海油工程</SPAN>(17.07,0.70,4.28%)</SPAN>、浙江龙盛</SPAN>(14.36,0.22,1.56%)</SPAN>)、建筑建材(赛马实业</SPAN>(29.59,-0.26,-0.87%)</SPAN>)、纺织服装(报喜鸟</SPAN>(15.12,0.12,0.80%)</SPAN>)、煤炭(国投新集</SPAN>(13.49,0.81,6.39%)</SPAN>)、食品饮料(青岛啤酒</SPAN>(23.17,0.41,1.80%)</SPAN>)。
　　出口反弹受益组合，包括家电(格力电器</SPAN>(28.60,-0.01,-0.03%)</SPAN>、美的电器</SPAN>(11.34,0.40,3.66%)</SPAN>)、建筑建材(福耀玻璃</SPAN>(7.34,0.00,0.00%)</SPAN>)、航运(中海集运</SPAN>(4.64,0.40,9.43%)</SPAN>)、电子元器件(生益科技</SPAN>(7.23,0.32,4.63%)</SPAN>、有研硅股</SPAN>(11.74,-0.08,-0.68%)</SPAN>)、纺织服装(鲁泰A</SPAN>(8.93,0.81,9.98%)</SPAN>、山东如意</SPAN>(8.26,0.11,1.35%)</SPAN>)化工(烟台万华</SPAN>(18.65,0.49,2.70%)</SPAN>、风神股份</SPAN>(9.64,-0.14,-1.43%)</SPAN>)、化纤(瑞贝卡</SPAN>(11.39,0.34,3.08%)</SPAN>、海利得</SPAN>(21.49,0.31,1.46%)</SPAN>)
　　替代能源组合，包括电池(中炬高新</SPAN>(9.09,0.00,0.00%)</SPAN>、风帆股份</SPAN>(15.15,1.36,9.86%)</SPAN>)、电池材料(江苏国泰、中国宝安</SPAN>(10.30,0.00,0.00%)</SPAN>)、太阳能(特变电工</SPAN>(30.59,1.24,4.22%)</SPAN>、天威保变</SPAN>(38.58,0.42,1.10%)</SPAN>)、风电(东方电气</SPAN>(40.25,0.41,1.03%)</SPAN>、金风科技</SPAN>(43.15,0.20,0.47%)</SPAN>)
　　区域经济振兴组合，包括上海本地股(陆家嘴</SPAN>(25.25,0.33,1.32%)</SPAN>、浦东金桥</SPAN>(14.50,0.35,2.47%)</SPAN>、城投控股、浦东建设</SPAN>(13.35,0.30,2.30%)</SPAN>、张江高科</SPAN>(14.53,0.28,1.96%)</SPAN>、上港集团</SPAN>(5.79,0.16,2.84%)</SPAN>、锦江投资</SPAN>(12.06,0.11,0.92%)</SPAN>、海博股份</SPAN>(7.82,0.05,0.64%)</SPAN>、强生控股</SPAN>(6.00,0.01,0.17%)</SPAN>、锦江股份</SPAN>(14.78,0.38,2.64%)</SPAN>、百联股份</SPAN>(11.24,0.44,4.07%)</SPAN>、振华港机</SPAN>(12.27,0.08,0.66%)</SPAN>、中国船舶</SPAN>(68.48,2.15,3.24%)</SPAN>、浦发银行</SPAN>(22.53,0.31,1.40%)</SPAN>)、海西板块(建发股份</SPAN>(10.24,-0.07,-0.68%)</SPAN>、漳州发展</SPAN>(5.00,0.00,0.00%)</SPAN>、中国武夷</SPAN>(6.60,0.02,0.30%)</SPAN>、厦门空港</SPAN>(15.48,-0.01,-0.06%)</SPAN>、厦工股份</SPAN>(7.97,-0.01,-0.13%)</SPAN>、龙溪股份</SPAN>(8.10,0.01,0.12%)</SPAN>)、重庆板块(重庆百货</SPAN>(19.58,0.86,4.59%)</SPAN>、渝开发</SPAN>(10.65,-0.14,-1.30%)</SPAN>)
　　稳健组合，包括青岛啤酒、深发展、张江高科、双鹭药业</SPAN>(33.80,0.21,0.63%)</SPAN>、中信证券</SPAN>(26.00,0.46,1.80%)</SPAN>、中国铁建</SPAN>(9.90,0.31,3.23%)</SPAN>、中国南车</SPAN>(4.57,0.07,1.56%)</SPAN>、中兴通讯</SPAN>(35.00,-0.42,-1.19%)</SPAN>、格力电器、陕天然气</SPAN>(15.00,0.38,2.60%)</SPAN>。
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