桂林旅游(000978</SPAN>)给予持有评级 目标价格:RMB </SPAN> 9.26</SPAN></SPAN>
支撑评级的要点</SPAN>
􀂄</SPAN> 公司目前股价超出目标价</SPAN> 9%</SPAN>,已部分反映资产注入预期。</SPAN>
􀂄</SPAN> 两江四湖及漓江大瀑布饭店的注入,一是对市区核心旅游资源的掌控,二将有利于公司产业链完善,收购协同效应显著。</SPAN>
􀂄</SPAN> 改扩建工程有助于银子岩景区旅游产品结构的重塑,打破目前的客流容量瓶颈以迎接广贺高速通车所带来的客流。</SPAN>
评级面临的风险因素</SPAN>
􀂄</SPAN> 实际再融资工作进度低于预期。</SPAN>
􀂄</SPAN> 募投项目的投资回报低于预期。</SPAN>
􀂄</SPAN> 甲型</SPAN> H1N1</SPAN> 流感等系统性因素对旅游景气度的影响。</SPAN>
估值</SPAN>
􀂄</SPAN> 不考虑增发并假设</SPAN> 2011</SPAN> 年公司所得税率恢复至</SPAN>25%</SPAN>,则预计</SPAN>09-11</SPAN> 年的每股收益为</SPAN>0.24</SPAN> 元、</SPAN>0.33</SPAN> 元和</SPAN>0.35</SPAN>元。若假设公司年内以</SPAN>8.75</SPAN> 元的价格增发</SPAN>1</SPAN> 亿股,则预计</SPAN>09-11</SPAN> 年业绩为</SPAN>0.17</SPAN> 元、</SPAN>0.31</SPAN> 元和</SPAN>0.34</SPAN> 元。基于</SPAN>10</SPAN> 年</SPAN>28</SPAN> 倍行业平均市盈率,并考虑地产增厚,我们将公司</SPAN>目标价自</SPAN>8.19</SPAN> 元上调至</SPAN>9.26</SPAN> 元</SPAN>,维持</SPAN>持有</SPAN>评级不变。</SPAN>
 阅读全文>>